Articles and Books
1. "Predictive Modeling, Stratification Improve Disease Management Risk Profiling" Ian Duncan,FSA,FIA,FCIA,MAAA. November 1, 2008. (Click to read more)
2. "Wellness Gains Steam- Industry Taking Broader View of Programs". Population Health Insider, Volume 1 (1) November 2008. (Click here to Download)
3. "New Tool From Solucia’s Holding Company Helps Plot Program ROI" Russell A. Jackson. Predictive Modeling News, Volume 1 (10) October 2008. (Click here to Download)
4. "Managing and Evaluating Healthcare Intervention Programs" Ian Duncan, FSA,FIA,FCIA,MAAA (Click to read more)
5. "Care And Disease Management: An Actuarial Response" Ian Duncan. Benefits & Compensation Digest, 42 (8) August 2005. (Click here to Download )
6. "Measurement of ROI/Effectiveness of Medical Management Processes" Ian Duncan, Record, Society of Actuaries, Volume 30, (1). (Click here to Download)
7. "A comparative analysis of chronic and non-chronic insured commercial member cost trends" by Ian Duncan, Robert Bachler and Iver Juster. North American Actuarial Journal, 10 (4) October 2006. (Click here to Download)
8. "Its time for the Industry to move on from ROI" by Ian Duncan, from Disease Management 7 (3) 2004. (Click here to Download)
9. "Evaluating the Results of Care Management Interventions: Comparative Analysis of Different Outcomes Measures" by Henry Dove, Ph.D. and Ian Duncan, FSA, MAAA.
Available in bound paperback for $35, including S&H (Click to Order)
Available in electronic form at: www.soa.org
Paper 1: Programs and Interventions describe popular care interventions that managed care organizations have used to change patients' and providers' utilization patterns.
Paper 2: Actuarial Issues in Care Management Interventions discusses methodological and measurement issues faced by actuaries who work or consult in the healthcare industry.
Paper 3: Selective Literature Review of Care Management Interventions reviews the existing literature on program evaluation, particularly the literature regarding reductions in cost and improvement in clinical quality, and discusses in more detail results as published in the peer-reviewed literature.
Paper 4: Understanding the Economics of Disease Management Programs presents an economic model for care management interventions. This paper also discusses the underlying components of a disease management program and how these components are structured and interact to drive the outcomes.
Paper 5: Outcomes and Outcome Measurement Methodologies survey frequently encountered outcomes measurement methodologies.
Paper 6: An Actuarial Methodology for Evaluating Disease Management Outcomes defines an actuarial methodology for structuring a study and assessing outcomes. The model is applied and some of its key assumptions are tested in Part 3 of the study. Part 3 (in progress; expected publication mid-2005): Practical Applications
Paper 7: A comparative analysis of chronic and non-chronic population trend (joint study with American Re HealthCare).
Paper 8: Practical Application of different outcomes measurement methodologies (joint study with Highmark).
10. "Its Time for the Industry to Move on From ROI", Disease Management, 7 (3) October, 2004. Available from Solucia on Request. (Click here to Request a Copy)
11. "A comparative analysis of claims-based methods of health risk assessment." Robert Cumming, FSA MAAA, for the Society of Actuaries (2002). The most comprehensive evaluation published comparing different risk-adjustment and predictive models. Available Free of Charge on Request. (Click here to Request a Copy)
12. "Does a High Deductible Plan Lead to Good Purchasing Decisions?" Ian Duncan. Contingencies, July/August 2004. (Click here to Download)
13. "New, integrated model of care targets risk rather than disease" Published in Disease Management Advisor, April 2007. Dorothy Brooks, editor. (Click here to Download)
14. "New Strategies in Disease and Utilization Management: Substituting Facts for Assumptions" Record, Society of Actuaries, 29(2) June 2003. (Click here to Download)
15. "A Prediction Model for Targeting Low-Cost, High-Risk Members of Managed Care Organizations" (with Henry Dove, Ph. D. and Arthur Robb, Ph. D.). Am. J. Mgd. Care, May 2003. Winner of DMAA prize for best published paper in 2003. (Re-prints available from Solucia (Click here to Request a Copy) or for download: (Click here to download)
16. "Population Risk Management", Health Section News, Society of Actuaries. June, 2002. (Click here to Download )
17. "Population Risk Management: Reducing Costs and Managing Risk in Health Insurance." (with Arthur Robb, Ph. D.) in Arnold Shapiro, ed : "Intelligent and other Computational Techniques in the Insurance Industry." (World Scientific, December 2003). (Available as a book only, on request from Solucia. Price $135 including postage.) (Click to Order)
18. "Measuring the Total Cost of Lost Time" (with Jonathon Crane, Ph. D.) in Janet R. Douglas: Managing Workers' Compensation. John Wiley, 1996. Out of Print. Reprints are available from Solucia on request. (Click here to Request a Copy)
19. "Benchmarking and Cost Control" in Janet R. Douglas: Managing Workers' Compensation. John Wiley, 1994. Out of Print. Reprints are available from Solucia on request. (Click here to Request a Copy)
20. "Dictionary of Disease Management Terminology." Edited by Ian Duncan, FSA, MAAA for the Disease Management Association of America (2004). Soft cover only. Price $85, includes S&H. (Click to Order)
21. "Guide to Disease Management Outcomes Evaluation." Disease Management Association of America (2004). Soft cover only. Price $65, includes S&H. (Click to Order)
22. "Return on Investment and Savings Methodology: Improving the Validity of Outcomes." Ian Duncan, FSA MAAA, Alfred Lewis, JD and Ariel Linden, PhD. (2005). The Disease Management Purchasing Consortium White Paper. Price $300, includes S&H. (Click to Order)
